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18 - Uncertainty and risk: dystopian futures
- from Part Two - Exploring images of the future
- Edited by Jan Rotmans, National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands, Bert de Vries, National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands
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- Book:
- Perspectives on Global Change
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- 06 July 2010
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- 16 October 1997, pp 395-416
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Summary
This chapter explores dystopian futures. After a summary of the uncertainties and risks discussed for each of the subsystems, integrated experiments are presented in which world view and management style throughout the world system are at odds. We also investigate the effectiveness of various response options and of the timing of certain policy measures.
Introduction
In the previous chapter we outlined possible futures which are based on coherent sets of assumptions about how the world system functions and how it is managed. These are called utopias and constitute the diagonal elements in the matrix presented in Figure 10.7. In a way, they are idealised and therefore implausible images of the future. In this chapter we first present some simulation experiments in which dystopian trends are explored with the integrated TARGETS 1.0 model. This is a prelude to the next section in which we analyse in more detail images of the future where world view and management style are at odds. These are referred to as integrated dystopias (see Chapter 11) and they are actually more plausible because they contain real-world tensions between diverging world views and management styles. Two major chains which cause feedback loops are presented as a framework discussing some interesting dystopian futures and to give an assessment of associated risks. Finally, we explore the adequacy of response actions in terms of intensity and timing, and the consequences of allocating insufficient investments to the food, water and energy sectors.
5 - The energy submodel: TIME
- from Part One - The TARGETS model
- Edited by Jan Rotmans, National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands, Bert de Vries, National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands
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- Book:
- Perspectives on Global Change
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- 06 July 2010
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- 16 October 1997, pp 83-106
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Summary
This submodel simulates the supply and demand for fuels- and electricity, given a certain level of economic activity. It is linked to other submodels, for example through investment flows, population sizes and emissions. The energy model consists of five modules: Energy Demand, Electric Power Generation, and Solid, Liquid and Gaseous Fuel supply. Effects such as those of depletion, conservation, fuel substitution, technological innovation, and energy efficiency are incorporated in an integrated way, with prices as important signals. Renewable sources are included as a non-thermal electricity option and as commercial biofuels.
Introduction
Modern societies as they have developed over the last two centuries require a continuous flow of processed fuels and materials. Until some 200 years ago energy needs were largely met by renewable fluxes such as water and biomass. Since then energy has increasingly been derived from the fossil fuels coal, oil and gas. To be useful these fuels have to be extracted, processed and converted to heat and chemicals. For all these steps the production factors labour, land, capital, and energy and material inputs, are required. All three steps are also accompanied by waste flows, the largest being the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) during combustion. Figure 5.1 shows the use of fossil fuels in million tonnes of oil equivalents over the period 1800–1990. The graph shows an increase in the use of coal, followed by the penetration of oil and later natural gas.
19 - Global change: fresh insights, no simple answers
- from Part Two - Exploring images of the future
- Edited by Jan Rotmans, National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands, Bert de Vries, National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands
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- Book:
- Perspectives on Global Change
- Published online:
- 06 July 2010
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- 16 October 1997, pp 417-434
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Introduction
We know that the future is inherently uncertain, yet we are fascinated by insights into ways in which we may be influencing the planet. This interest is intensified because there is widespread perception that the world is changing at an unprecedented speed. Undeniably, many parts of the global system are accelerating or decelerating compared to previously observed, natural rates of change. For some people these processes of change may just look like more of the same. There are, however, underlying behavioural and structural changes at work which suggest deeper, more radical change in the longer term. Many of those long-term changes can be viewed as part of transition processes. Several of these are within the human system: from many to 1 or 2 children per family, twice as many older people per thousand compared to today, a factor of 3 to 5 less energy and water use per unit of economic activity, increasing pressure to cultivate more land and use it more intensively to feed the population. More gradual, but possibly of overriding importance, are the changes in the environmental system, such as the accelerating increase in the concentration of some atmospheric gases and increasing accumulation of pollutants in soils and water bodies which are the result of past and present practices. It is difficult to disentangle the human-induced, structural long-term changes from the natural changes, which makes it even harder to see where the world is heading.
11 - Towards integrated assessment of global change
- from Part Two - Exploring images of the future
- Edited by Jan Rotmans, National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands, Bert de Vries, National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands
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- Book:
- Perspectives on Global Change
- Published online:
- 06 July 2010
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- 16 October 1997, pp 223-238
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Summary
This chapter introduces Part Two of the book, which reports on experiments with submodels of TARGETS 1.0 carried out to assess a number of global change controversies. The experiments include a range of utopias and dystopias to discover whether the problem at the core of each controversy is likely to occur, and if so, under what conditions. The hierarchist utopia, which reflects the assumptions behind many reputable scenario studies, is used as a reference case to explore issues such as population growth, demand for food, water and energy, the environmental consequences of these pressures, and a range of societal responses. The results of integrated experiments with the TARGETS 1.0 model are presented at the end of this part of the book.
Introduction
Part One of this book described tools for performing integrated assessments of global change. The aim of Part Two is to gain insights by using these tools, both withthe separate submodels and with the integrated TARGETS 1.0 model. The main goal of TARGETS is to put possible developments within the subsystems of the world into perspective in an integrated way. In this way we hope to provide a context for discussing global change and sustainable development. The quantitative modelling framework is used to support the qualitative framing of important issues. Though they are partial and limited in scope, the resulting images of possible global futures enable us to localise areas of tension and directions for sustainable development strategies.
13 - Energy systems in transition
- from Part Two - Exploring images of the future
- Edited by Jan Rotmans, National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands, Bert de Vries, National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands
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- Book:
- Perspectives on Global Change
- Published online:
- 06 July 2010
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- 16 October 1997, pp 263-290
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Summary
In this chapter we present simulation experiments and outcomes of the energy submodel TIME. First, the major controversies and uncertainties are discussed. Next, the cultural perspectives are introduced with reference to world energy, after which we clarify the way in which these are linked to assumptions and model routes. Some results of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are also given. We discuss a few energy dystopias which could emerge if, for a given population-economy scenario, the world view and the management style within the energy system are discordant. Some conclusions are presented about the plausibility of and risks related to the utopian energy futures. The impacts of the emissions from fossil fuel combustion on water, land, and element cycles are discussed in the next three chapters.
Introduction
In 1886 Jevons warned in his book ‘The coal question’ about the rapid depletion of British coal fields threatening the British Empire. Numerous appraisals of coal, oil and gas availability have been made since then, many of them for strategic reasons. Environmental issues and the two oil crises in the 1970s have intensified the debate on fossil fuel use. Later on, it has been broadened by incorporating demand side management and renewable supply options and by including macro-economic aspects. Controversies and uncertainties about the future development of the world energy system abound.
1 - Global change and sustainable development
- Edited by Jan Rotmans, National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands, Bert de Vries, National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands
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- Book:
- Perspectives on Global Change
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- 06 July 2010
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- 16 October 1997, pp 1-14
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Summary
This chapter provides an introduction to the theme of the book by explaining the importance of the three central concepts global change, sustainable development and integrated assessment. The book focuses on five areas: population and human health, energy, water, land and food, and global biogeochemical cycles. The idea of using multiple definitions of sustainable development in an integrated approach to global change is put forward. The construction and use of the TARGETS integrated assessment model (Tool to Assess Regional and Global Environmental and health Targets for Sustainability) is justified in terms of providing a platform for communication within the scientific community that can inform policy debates about likely trends over the next 100 years or so.
Introduction
With the approach of a new millennium, global change and sustainable development are evolving as key concepts for assessing the future of the planet and of humankind. Over the last few decades, we have become used to the idea that our activities may have serious and irreversible impacts on the environment. Human-induced changes are recognised as having the potential to significantly modify the structure and functioning of the Earth system as a whole. Furthermore, activities at one place on Earth can affect the lives of people around the globe and even jeopardise those of future generations. The use of land, water, minerals and other natural resources by humans has increased more than tenfold during the past two centuries.
3 - The TARGETS model
- from Part One - The TARGETS model
- Edited by Jan Rotmans, National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands, Bert de Vries, National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands
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- Book:
- Perspectives on Global Change
- Published online:
- 06 July 2010
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- 16 October 1997, pp 33-54
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Summary
When tackling a subject as complex as global change and sustainable development, it is essential to be able to ‘frame the issues’. This was one of the main reasons for developing the TARGETS model, an integrated model of the global system, consisting of metamodels of important subsystems. In this chapter we introduce TARGETS. Building on the previous chapters, we elaborate on the possibilities and limitations of integrated assessment models. Some of the key issues discussed are aggregation, model calibration and validation, and dealing with uncertainty.
Introduction
One of the main tools used in integrated assessment of global change issues is the Integrated Assessment (IA) model. This chapter introduces such an integrated model, TARGETS, which builds upon the systems approach and related concepts introduced in Chapter 2. Previous integrated modelling attempts either focused on specific aspects of global change, for instance the climate system (IPCC, 1995), or consisted merely of conceptual descriptions (Shaw et al., 1992). We have tried to go one step further, linking a series of cause-effect chains of global change. Although we realise the shortcomings in our current version of the TARGETS model, we felt there was a need to present our model to a wide audience. We first give some advantages and limitations of IA models. Next, we discuss issues of aggregation, calibration, validation and uncertainty. We proceed with a brief description of the five TARGETS submodels which coincides with the PSIR concept and the vertical integration as introduced in Chapter 2. A more detailed description of these submodels is given in Chapters 4 to 8.
2 - Concepts
- from Part One - The TARGETS model
- Edited by Jan Rotmans, National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands, Bert de Vries, National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands
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- Book:
- Perspectives on Global Change
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- 06 July 2010
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- 16 October 1997, pp 15-32
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Summary
Global change is an extremely complex phenomenon, encompassing a wide variety of issues. An adequate approach to such a broad subject demands careful consideration of a host of interactions between people and the environment and a clear understanding of driving forces, be the demographic, social, economic or technological. If we wish to tackle such a complex issue, we need to establish some basic guiding concepts. This chapter proposes an integrated systems approach to a number of key aspects of global change: population, health, energy, land, water and element cycles. We define what we mean by ‘system’ and ‘model’ and introduce a conceptual framework for analysing global change. As a mechanism to structure this conceptual framework we use the Pressure-State-Impact-Response (PSIR) approach. We look at two different kinds of integration (vertical and horizontal) and discuss different levels of complexity. Finally, we explain the importance of communicating the results of integrated systems analysis and suggest the value of using different communication methods such as indicators and visualisation.
Introduction
Most systematic studies of global change have so far focused on subsystems in isolation. However, it is well known that when parts are combined into more complex structures, the resulting system may exhibit quite different properties and behaviour (Gregory, 1981). As mentioned in Chapter 1, there is a growing interest in an integrated approach to global change (for an overview see Parson (1996) and Rotmans et al. (1996)).
17 - The larger picture: utopian futures
- from Part Two - Exploring images of the future
- Edited by Jan Rotmans, National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands, Bert de Vries, National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands
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- Book:
- Perspectives on Global Change
- Published online:
- 06 July 2010
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- 16 October 1997, pp 371-394
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Summary
This chapter synthesises the insights gained from the model experiments made in the previous five chapters. The hierarchist utopia examined in Chapter 11 is only one possible future. We now explore the consequences of two other utopian futures: the egalitarian and the individualist. A selection of conditional forecasts from integrated simulation experiments with population, food, water and energy supplies, land use, global temperature and sea-level rise are presented. One way of looking at the model outcomes is by focusing on the various transitions which characterise the development of the human-environment system. Extending the time horizon of the model simulations into the 22nd century yields additional insights into the relation between the human and the environmental system.
Introduction
The main goal of the TARGETS 1.0 model is to place possible developments within the subsystems of the world in an integrated perspective. In Chapters 12 to 16, simulation results of experiments with the TARGETS 1.0 submodels are discussed in isolation, while in Chapter 11 the results of an integrated simulation experiment for the hierarchist utopia are presented. In this chapter, we pursue this analysis further and include the other two perspectives. In this way we elaborate on the various controversies which have been raised in the preceding chapters: can a large population be maintained at an adequate health level and will there be enough energy, water and food without overburdening the natural environment? We start with the integrated utopias which are based on assumptions about world view and management style taken from a single perspective for all submodels (see Table 11.1).